How Will Self-Driving Vehicles Shape the Mobility Landscape?

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Image Courtesy of Wired
Assuming any rate of technological progress, the advent of self-driving vehicles remains an inevitability.  Nevertheless, the specific nature by which self-driving vehicles will alter society is extremely difficult to predict, especially in the field of technology, where past trends are not good determinants of future results.

Although the nuanced nature by which future self-driving developments will be difficult to predict, Dr. Adam Millard Ball provides an insightful look into the incentive structures that could drive the behavior of self-driving vehicles.  Examining developments through incentive structures proves effective not just to analysts, but legislators as well -- especially as they must learn to confront the negative externalities associated with the self-serving decisions of autonomous vehicles (e.g. idling in traffic to avoid parking fees).  

Self driving vehicles will likely cause social upheaval, and I believe that the two most pressing issues when examining the changing mobility landscape revolve around equity and sustainability.

Equity

Regarding equity, proponents of self-driving vehicles suggest greater affordability with increased pooling, whereas detractors might envision a future in which only the wealthy elite can own their own self-driving vehicles.  I am of the belief that self-driving vehicles will open the door to widespread carpooling, which is far more affordable than the $8000 Americans spend on car ownership annually.  When given the choice between personally fronting car ownership or splitting the cost through autonomous-pooling services, consumers will undoubtedly choose the latter, cheaper option.  Autonomous vehicles will do more to increase accessibility, even if it means less car ownership.  Rather than focusing on the equity of car ownership, I believe that a greater concern here is the job displacement which will take place, especially when considering the four million Americans employed by the transportation industry.  Phasing out these jobs will present massive social upheaval as the labor market increasingly transitions to a service-based economy, an issue that legislators will have to confront.

Sustainability

Unfortunately, sustainability prospects seem grim at best when examining the impacts of autonomous vehicles.  The removal of drivers will make driving far cheaper, resulting in increased driving by as much as 66% by 2040; even in scenarios involving greater pooling, driving is still projected to increase by 46%.  This would disproportionately harm lower-income communities concentrated in dense, urban centers.   Congestion is projected to increase 5 to 7 times in low-income areas, resulting which could result in drastic concentrations of air pollution.  It is imperative that legislators incentivize the electrification of the vehicle fleet, in order to dampen the air pollution and carbon emissions arising from autonomous vehicles.  

Ultimately, I remain optimistic about the advent of autonomous vehicles.  Even so, I recognize that any solution to a current problem will undoubtedly promulgate unforeseen consequences (possibly resulting in greater problems).




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