Autonomous Buses

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                For years now, we have been assured that fully autonomous personal vehicles are just around the corner. In 2015, The Guardian assured readers that by 2020, we would be “permanent backseatdrivers.” More than a year after Uber’s fatal self-driving car accident, the future of autonomous vehicles is on hold, and one contemporary estimate gives a far more modest prediction of 15% of new cars sold at level 4 or 5 autonomy by 2030.
                One of the biggest issues with introducing fully autonomous vehicles “into the wild” is their interaction with other vehicles, especially human-driven ones. If implemented in conjunction with bus-only lanes, autonomous buses could avoid this problem. In Manchester, England, trials have begun on a full size autonomouselectric bus. The vehicle can seat up to 43 passengers, though it is currently limited to trials in a bus depot, and even when fully implemented, it will be at level 4 autonomy, requiring an attendant.

                Here in the United States, more than a dozen transit agencies, including Dallas Area RapidTransit (DART), the Michigan Department of Transportation, and LA Metro have joined together under the aegis of engineering giant AECOM to form the Autonomous Bus Consortium. The Consortium plans to jointly purchase between 75 and 100 autonomous buses and conduct feasibility studies before launching the buses between 2021 and 2022. Members of the Consortium will be meeting in an industry conference this coming September in Detroit, symbolic home of automobile innovation.
                The plan of the Autonomous Bus Consortium is encouraging both as a pilot and as the first step in a longer-term shift in urban mobility. By banding together, the member agencies will lower individual costs and learn readily from each other’s successes and challenges. A fully implemented system of autonomous buses running on fixed routes, ideally in dedicated lanes, can itself serve as a pilot program for the more complex future of autonomous personal vehicles. While the initial cost of the buses will significantly higher than the standard fleet, operating costs will be lower.
                However, the operating costs will be lower because thousands of bus drivers will be out of work. The loss of these jobs, some of the few opportunities for upward mobility for non-college educated workers, is also a harbinger of broader job loss and economic dislocation promised by vehicular automation. Furthermore, without a human driver on the bus, passengers may worry for safety, and unpredictable events like medical emergencies may be more difficult to resolve. Nevertheless, these issues are likely still years in the future, as the first fleets of autonomous buses will no doubt require a person to ensure safety.

Comments

  1. Adam RussellJune 6, 2019 at 11:57 PM

    In Brian's transportation planning class, I remember a guest speaker about autonomous vehicles was hesitant to say that bus operators would be completely out of work: vehicles would still need conductors or other staff to ensure that they're running alright. And operators serve another purpose as a form of insurance for passenger behavior and to answer questions. I think the benefits of autonomous buses could be especially helpful to service reliability - and more easily realized given a limited ODD on a separated busway - but I wonder how the Autonomous Bus Consortium factors in the possible need for different driver roles.

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