What Comes First: Autonomous Delivery Devices or Passenger AVs?

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Dozens of auto manufacturers, technology firms, and robotics companies have contributed large financial investments to further develop their autonomous vehicle technology. While the ultimate goal for many of these firms is to bring this technology to market for mass adoption and mass consumption, several firms have expanded their operations to include the testing and deployment of Autonomous Delivery Devices (ADD). Unlike autonomous vehicles, Autonomous Delivery Devices can take many forms. For example, in 2017, Ford Motor Company partnered with Postmates to pilot light-weight autonomous delivery trucks equipped with code-enabled lockers and an internal cooling system. Uber recently announced its plans to deploy delivery drones by 2021. In January 2019, Starship Technologies, a developer of sidewalk robots, launched its autonomous robot delivery service at George Mason University. As the technology for passenger AVs and the technology for ADDs continue to evolve, which should cities expect to see first?

Regulatory Gray Area of ADDs
Since ferrying passengers poses greater risks and safety concerns than goods delivery, city officials and state and federal policymakers have paid more attention to passenger AVs. As such, AV regulations are expected to be more stringent than they would be for ADDs. Sidewalk robots, however, have received notable attention from cities. San Francisco, Washington D.C., Austin, and several universities are conducting short-term pilots that allow firms to test autonomous robot delivery technology on public sidewalks. This trend is likely attributed to cities making greater efforts to manage the public right-of-way and to improve pedestrian safety as it relates to dockless micromobility. Although the California DMV is developing safety guidelines for the testing and deployment of ADDs, the language is broad and is primarily focused on defining ADDs and the environments where they can be tested.

Potential Growth of Autonomous Delivery Services
A recent study predicts that by 2020, 20 percent of the grocery retail market will consist of online grocery sales. KPMG and other sources argue that ADDs will facilitate this expected growth by enabling faster, cheaper delivery. With growing demand and a relatively untapped market, established technology firms as well as new players are rushing to develop and test ADDs with the hopes of attaining a majority market share. Established technology firms are also more willing to experiment and take risks with ADDs  than with AVs because they receive less oversight from regulatory bodies. Deploying ADDs in small-scale pilots also give firms the opportunity to gauge customer interest without having to deal with the red tape associated with testing AV passenger vehicles.


Given that ADDs and small-scale goods delivery more broadly face less regulatory hurdles than services that ferry passengers, and given that many pilots have allowed firms to deploy on public sidewalks, it is likely that cities will see ADDs before passenger AVs. Firms have more room to experiment and to gauge how consumers will respond to this new technology. It’s only a matter of time before we see sidewalk delivery robots on the streets of California cities.  


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